Ruminating Out Loud

Ever wondered how Albert Einstein would explain his infamous equation of mass-energy equivalence (E = m c ²)? Wonder no more:

… is what this article calls for. In fact, what is called for is a fundamental rethinking in order to have a sustainable food system in the 21st century.  The current system, which apparently was designed in 1940s, is claimed to have astronomical environmental consequences and has deficiencies in addressing issues such as biodiversity, energy, water and urbanization.

Professor Lang said that in order to feed a projected nine billion people by 2050, policymakers and scientists face a fundamental challenge: how can food systems work with the planet and biodiversity, rather than raiding and pillaging it?

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The UK’s Environment Secretary, Hilary Benn, …speaking at the council’s launch, warned: “Global food production will need to double just to meet demand. “We have the knowledge and the technology to do this, as things stand, but the perfect storm of climate change, environmental degradation and water and oil scarcity, threatens our ability to succeed.”

Professor Lang, offered a suggestion: “We are going to have to get biodiversity into gardens and fields, and then eat it. We have to do this rather than saying that biodiversity is what is on the edge of the field or just outside my garden”

…

Growing appetite

The latest estimates from the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) show that another 40 million people have been pushed into hunger in 2008 as a result of higher food prices.

This brings the overall number of undernourished people in the world to 963 million, compared to 923 million in 2007.

The FAO warned that the ongoing financial and economic crisis could tip even more people into hunger and poverty.

“World food prices have dropped since early 2008, but lower prices have not ended the food crisis in many poor countries,” said FAO assistant director-general Hafez Ghanem at the launch of the agency’s State of Food Insecurity in the World 2008 report.

“The structural problems of hunger, like the lack of access to land, credit and employment, combined with high food prices remain a dire reality,” he added.

Professor Lang outlined the challenges facing the global food supply system: “The 21st Century is going to have to produce a new diet for people, more sustainably, and in a way that feeds more people more equitably using less land.”

For an intellectual insight into the background and thinking of Prof. John Holdren, who is just appointed to be Assistant to the President for Science and Technology, Director of the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy, and Co-Chair of the President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology (PCAST), check out a journal article published in Innovations entitled “The Energy Innovation Imperative: Addressing Oil Dependence, Climate Change, and Other 21st Century Energy Challenges (Innovations, volume 1, issue 2, pages 3-23).”  

Below is an excerpt from the article that outlines the aims of a successful energy strategy

Here is a prediction to go a along with the projection about the future of the internet that was put out by Pew Internet & American Project. My prediction is that in the next two decades the world will have been liberated from the strong hold wires have on devices/machines/appliances. This prediction is specifically related to the wirefree transmission of power and signals of communication. The machines and devices of the future are going to have the capability to tap into the energy transmitted wirefree from power generators. Until broad availability of what I call energy signal is made possible, charging-by-proximity will have been made possible by technological advancements in the intermediate future. The model for this will be the equivalent of the a modem that converters wired internet into a wireless one. Within the home and office environment, all appliances and devices will have had connectivity with each other and capability of communication in which a smart centralized system will allow for effective allocation of energy resources. Freed from the need to be tied to  wall, appliances and devices will have had maximal mobility. This last leg of technological evolution will complement and add to the advancements that are being made in wireless internet , content transmission and communication.

Ever wondered about how the historical comparison of oil prices compares with the overall consumption in the U.S.? Here is a thorough onestop collection of data and analysis on this topic. I find the following graph particularly instructive as far as the Grand Energy Challenge is concerned.

US Petroleum Consumption and Price By J. L. Williams

The sustained pace at which consumption has been going up since the early eighties is cause for alarm. In fact, for most of this period, the price of oil has been lagging behind the corresponding energy consumption rate. This is also the case if one looks at the trend in weekly price of gas. The following is a plot put together from data put out by the Energy Information Administration.

Weekly U.S. Regular Conventional Retail Gasoline Prices

Gas prices are arguable the most visible and immediate anchor of perception for energy prices for consumers and, unfortunately, policy makes. In this measure, in recent past, it is only during the early part of the this century that the price of started to show an appreciable increase. Despite the alarming rise in the total energy consumption rate, policy makers have not shown a sense of urgency and political will to deal with the problem, partly because of the lack of immediacy of impact on the population at large. It took the catching-up-to-reality of the prices to finally bring into the collective consciousness issues such as climate change and efficiency of usage.  Now that there is the coming-together of the will of the public to look beyond the energy guzzling vehicles and appliances and of the policy makers to admit to the need to deal with the issue, a visionary leadership is needed to not let this fortunate coincidence to go to waste. The incredible fall off in the prices in the last six months has brought prices to the pre-this-decade levels. There is a finite time period left until the > $4/gallon prices are quickly forgotten about and the will to enact bold agenda will be slowly deteriorate. It time to act, and act now.

Dr. Steven Chu succinctly highlights the enormity of the global warming crisis and makes a compelling case energy usage efficiency improvement. This presentation is filled with pieces of information that debunk a lot of the myth about energy consumption needs and economic development, the large scale savings that can be brought about by instituting efficiency improvement policies, and availability of the necessary technology to bring about transformation. My favorite part starts right at about 4:14. In fact, I think his potential appointment at the Department of Energy may be a move by President-elect Obama’s part to do exactly that.

I believe the discussion on the transformation of the energy-landscape should be firmly anchored on thorough assessment of what I call the four cardinals to achieving long-term sustainability and address the grand energy challenge. These four cardinals are: creation, conversion, storage, and transport. Creation is to the exploration of sources of energy through tapping into natural resources or harnessing the energy-byproduct of activities. Conversion is to the the interchangeability of different energy-forms. Storage is to the identification and on-demand accessibilityof repository of unwanted energy. Transport is to the creation of carriers of energy-form. Such a holistic approach in the treatment of the energy problem allows for the addressing of issues concerning energy usage from the source to the point-of-use. Under this broad theme example of advancements in any of such areas will be highlighted and discussed.

The Four Cardinals to Long-term Energy Sustainability

There are two main themes that I shall use this space to explore ideas on and formulate and organize my thoughts around. I will broadly classify these themes as “the grand energy challenge” and “the laws of incremental returns.” I am fascinated by the gathering of momentum in the collective drive to confront the necessity of transforming the energy landscape from hydrocarbon-based one to those that are more sustainable. The other fascination arises from pervasive eagerness for instantaneous gratification affecting many of us. In search for such immediacy and living in the now, what I will attempt to formulate as the laws of incremental returns, which have long contributed to the continued survival and evolution of the species, are forgotten about. I hope too expand my learnings around these broad themes in the time ahead. Your insightful contribution to this intellectual growth is deeply appreciated in advance.